Capital markets infrastructure for event-driven assets

The capital markets layer for prediction markets

Risk, credit, settlement, and liquidation infrastructure for the positions traded on prediction markets, and for any short-maturity claim that resolves against a contractual source and settles after the fact.

Read the docs Why it is hard

$3B: 2023 volume
$16B: 2024 volume
$60B+: 2025 volume
~$1T: 2030 projection

Aggregate prediction-market volume, compiled from public reporting. The 2030 figure is a third-party projection, not a Cusp forecast.

The protocol, end to end

Six modules built for collateral that reprices in jumps and loses liquidity when it matters, all recorded by a seventh: calibration and transparency. Solvency is arranged before the drawdown, not recovered after it.

Risk engineEligibility, a conservative value, limits, and pricing per market, from the venue trade record.Position standardA versioned object that makes every supported position legible to any underwriter.Instant RedeemSettlement financing. Resolved winning claims are purchased now, during the settlement gap.Tranched vaultsSenior capital protected by structure; junior capital takes first loss for the levered residual.Controlled creditShort repriced terms, capacity that decays toward resolution, and a gate that stops credit near it.Liquidation auctionsDescending-price auctions among bonded specialists, opening at the conservative mark.

Measured from the right data

Trade-signed inputs come from the venue’s authoritative record, not display feeds that get direction wrong.

Conservative by construction

Collateral is valued at the most pessimistic of several prices, never the last trade, with stress haircuts on top.

A provable launch posture

Total credit is bounded by first-loss capital, so senior depositors are protected by arithmetic, not estimation.

Read the protocol documentation

High-level guides to each mechanism: what it does, why it exists, and who uses it. The formal treatment lives in the whitepaper.

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