The Market
Where prediction-market volume stands, and why scale now demands a capital market.
Aggregate prediction-market volume grew from roughly $3B in 2023 to about $16B in 2024 and more than $60B in 2025. Early-2026 monthly volume implies an annual run rate several times larger again. Published sell-side projections place the sector near $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030.
Institutional signals
Capital has followed the volume. The two largest venues carry private valuations near $9B and $11B. The exchange operator that owns the New York Stock Exchange has committed up to $2B to the sector. Survey evidence suggests nearly half of proprietary trading firms are evaluating event-contract strategies.
Figures here are compiled from venue disclosures and public reporting. They are approximate and vary by methodology. The 2030 figure is a third-party sell-side projection, not a Cusp forecast. The order of magnitude and the growth rate are the point, not any single number.
Why scale demands a capital market
Volume of this size produces a large standing inventory of positions that can currently do only one thing: wait for resolution. Holders cannot borrow against them, earn on them, or finance the settlement gap. Lenders have no common standard to underwrite against and no liquidation venue fit for the collateral.
That is the gap. The trading layer exists and is growing quickly. The capital market around it does not exist yet. Cusp is built to be that layer.