The Market
Where prediction-market volume stands, and why scale now demands a capital market.
The numbers moved fast. Aggregate prediction-market volume ran around $3B in 2023, roughly $16B in 2024, and more than $60B in 2025. Early-2026 monthly volume points to an annual run rate several times higher again. Published sell-side projections put the sector near $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030.
Capital is already there
Money has tracked the volume. The two largest venues carry private valuations near $9B and $11B. The exchange operator that owns the New York Stock Exchange has committed up to $2B to the sector. Survey evidence puts close to half of proprietary trading firms somewhere in the process of evaluating event-contract strategies. The institutional read on this market is already made.
Figures here are compiled from venue disclosures and public reporting, so they are approximate and shift with methodology. The 2030 number is a third-party sell-side projection, not a CUSP forecast. The point is the order of magnitude and the slope, not any single figure.
Why scale forces the question
Volume at this level leaves behind a large standing inventory of open positions, and most of that inventory still does nothing but wait for resolution. The first credit against it exists, but only inside closed applications with their own approved markets, their own risk parameters, and their own liquidation plumbing. Lenders still have no common standard to underwrite against and no shared venue fit to liquidate through.
That is the gap, stated plainly: the trading layer exists and is compounding, while the open capital network that should sit around it exists only in closed, disconnected pieces. CUSP is that network.